The Power Puzzle: Unraveling the Red Sox's 2026 Home Run Mystery
As the 2026 MLB season approaches, the Red Sox find themselves at a crossroads. With a revamped roster, the team aims for playoff glory, but a glaring question remains: Where's the power?
Last season's ending left no doubt about the Red Sox's winter mission: acquire a power hitter. Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow made it clear that boosting the offense was a top priority. However, despite improvements, the club fell short in this pursuit.
The Red Sox missed out on the top free agent power hitters, with Pete Alonso joining the Orioles and Kyle Schwarber returning to the Phillies. Alex Bregman's departure to the Cubs further complicated matters.
But here's where it gets controversial... Instead of pursuing power, the Red Sox shifted their focus to run prevention. They signed top starter Ranger Suarez and traded for infielder Caleb Durbin, a talented player but not known for his power. So, as we head into 2026, the Red Sox have playoff aspirations, but also one of the least powerful lineups in baseball.
Breslow acknowledged this unexpected turn of events. "We pursued sluggers, but when those plans fell through, we had to adapt and look for other ways to improve. We have a strong core returning, a top-10 offensive team, and I believe we'll see power emerge. Our lineup is balanced, and we're confident."
But the question remains: Just how much power potential does this team truly possess?
Models Paint a Bleak Picture
Preseason models aren't optimistic about the Red Sox's power potential. FanGraph's ZiPS model predicts that Boston will be the only MLB club without a player hitting over 20 home runs. Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, and Trevor Story are projected to lead with 18 each, and only a few others are predicted to reach the 17-homer mark. Incredibly, even prospects Mikey Romero and Freili Encarnacion are expected to finish in the club's top 10, with 14 and 12 homers, respectively.
The Steamer projection tells a similar story, with Willson Contreras leading the team with 19 home runs, and only eight players predicted to hit double-digit homers.
When asked about these forecasts, Breslow downplayed their significance, expressing faith in the club's own models, players, and staff. "Trevor is back, and we expect a full, healthy season from him. Roman and Willy, too, should thrive with a full season's health. We might see someone hit over 20 homers, but ultimately, it's about winning games."
Health: The X-Factor
An important caveat to the Red Sox's projections is the anticipated lack of a full-season workload for their top hitters. ZiPS predicts Anthony will play 134 games, Story 132, Abreu 122, and Contreras 116. Steamer's projections are even lower.
While health is never guaranteed, if these players stay on the field, they should comfortably surpass the 20-homer mark. Last year, the Red Sox had only two players hit over 20 homers (Story with 25 and Abreu with 22), yet they still ranked 15th in MLB for home runs (186) and 7th in runs scored (786).
The Red Sox excelled in hitting doubles, leading MLB with 324. This suggests that, despite a lack of power, the team has the potential to lead the league in doubles again.
Would Bregman Have Made a Difference?
Alex Bregman is undoubtedly a terrific player, and his presence would have significantly boosted this year's team. However, in terms of power potential, his impact might not have been as dramatic as some might think.
ZiPS projects Bregman to hit 18 home runs in 131 games with the Cubs, while Steamer predicts 23 homers in 142 games. While these numbers are better than those predicted for likely third base candidates Durbin and Mayer, it's unlikely Bregman will return to his 30-homer heyday.
With Bregman on board, the Red Sox offense would have been a formidable force, but still reliant on doubles and sneaky pop. It's a team built for putting the ball in play and capitalizing on scoring opportunities.
Casas: The X-Factor
Triston Casas is the wild card in the Red Sox's power equation. When healthy, he has shown the potential to be a genuine middle-of-the-order force. In his lone full season (2023), he hit 24 homers in 132 games, and even in a limited 63-game appearance in 2024, he hit 13 bombs. Over four big league seasons, he averages 29 homers per 162 games.
However, Casas's health is a concern. His role for the upcoming season is uncertain, with Willson Contreras taking over as the starting first baseman and the DH spot likely occupied by Masataka Yoshida and a rotating outfield group. Casas is still recovering from a ruptured patellar tendon, so he may start the season on the IL, spending time in Triple-A to complete his rehab.
If Casas can stay healthy, he could be the power anchor the Red Sox need. It remains to be seen if this will materialize by midseason.
Midseason Reinforcements?
If the Red Sox want to boost their power, external reinforcements may be necessary. Assuming they're in contention, pursuing a bat at the trade deadline makes sense.
The most desirable target would be Arizona's Ketel Marte, a switch-hitting second baseman with three consecutive 25-homer seasons, including a career-high 36 in 2024. However, acquiring him would come at a high price.
Another possible infield bat is Brandon Lowe, the former Tampa Bay Rays second baseman who hit 31 homers last season. The Pittsburgh Pirates, who acquired Lowe, may be open to trading him if they struggle in the NL Central.
Best-Case Scenario
While this Red Sox team isn't built for long balls, they can still surprise with a few home runs. If everything falls into place, power might not be the weakness it seems.
Besides Casas, Roman Anthony is another wild card. Before his debut, he was known for his premium power, hitting titanic blasts in spring training and at Triple-A. While his power didn't fully emerge until August last season, it's not far-fetched to imagine Anthony hitting 30 home runs in 2026. A more realistic expectation is 20-25, but if he exceeds expectations, he could be the power anchor the Red Sox need.
Abreu hitting 30 homers isn't out of the question either. He hit 22 last year in just 115 games, which projects to 31 over a full season. With Alex Cora committed to playing Abreu every day, including against lefties, he'll have more chances to boost his totals.
If a few players exceed expectations and four or five reach the 20-homer mark, it would be a massive improvement for the Red Sox's offense. With an improved starting rotation and a defense-focused roster, this modest power boost could elevate the Red Sox into championship contenders.
So, will the Red Sox's power potential pay off? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: This team is ready to make some noise in 2026.
