Here’s a bold statement: the San Jose Sharks’ line construction might not be as straightforward as fans think, and it’s sparking some serious debate. But here’s where it gets controversial... Ryan Warsofsky, the Sharks’ coach, recently shed light on why he chose Kiefer Sherwood over Collin Graf to play alongside Macklin Celebrini, and it’s not just about what meets the eye. While the trio of Celebrini, Graf, and Will Smith has been a fan favorite, Warsofsky argues that the analytics tell a different story—one that’s far less flattering.
Warsofsky explained, ‘If you dive into the numbers, that line isn’t as dominant as everyone believes. Sure, they score some highlight-reel goals, but there are underlying issues.’ He pointed to key metrics like expected goals for (xGF) and puck possession (Corsi For %), where the line falls short. For instance, the Graf-Celebrini-Smith line posted a 40.38% xGF and 41.18% CF at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick. In contrast, Celebrini’s line with Smith and Tyler Toffoli boasts a 46.88% xGF and 47.27% CF, while the Smith-Celebrini-Sherwood combination has been even more impressive, with a 57.6% xGF and 54.43% CF—though it’s worth noting the smaller sample size.
And this is the part most people miss... While Natural Stat Trick provides a snapshot, Warsofsky hinted that the Sharks use more advanced, proprietary models for their evaluations. It’s not just about raw numbers; it’s about context. For example, the Toffoli-Celebrini-Smith line outshines Graf-Celebrini-Smith in actual goals scored, with a 73.91% Goals For compared to 57.1%. So, why the shuffle?
Warsofsky isn’t anti-analytics—far from it. He’s well-versed in the field but emphasizes that it’s one tool among many. ‘Analytics can lead you down a rabbit hole,’ he said. ‘We don’t make decisions solely based on them.’ Instead, he considers factors like matchups, player trust, and the ‘identity’ of a line. Take his fourth line of Barclay Goodrow, Zack Ostapchuk, and Ryan Reaves, which has underwhelming analytics (40.11% xGF, 43.11% CF) but serves a specific purpose—likely as a physical, forechecking unit.
This raises a thought-provoking question: Is relying too heavily on analytics a mistake, or are coaches like Warsofsky undervaluing data? Warsofsky’s approach suggests a balance between data and intuition. He admits, ‘There’s a lot of eye test involved, and trust in certain players for certain situations.’ Whether it’s matching up against stars like Connor McDavid or creating turnovers, each line has a role beyond what the stats show.
As the Sharks (28-25-4) prepare to face the Winnipeg Jets (23-26-9) at 1 PM PT at SAP Center, the lineup remains consistent: Smith-Celebrini-Sherwood, Kurashev-Wennberg-Graf, Eklund-Misa-Toffoli, and Goodrow-Ostapchuk-Regenda up front, with Orlov-Klingberg, Ferraro-Mukhamadullin, and Dickinson-Desharnais on defense. Alex Nedeljkovic starts in goal. For the Jets, Walker Duehr returns, joining a lineup led by Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi and backed by Hellebuyck in net.
Catch the game live on NBC Sports California or listen on the Sharks Audio Network. But before you tune in, ask yourself: Are Warsofsky’s line decisions genius or misguided? Let’s debate it in the comments—your take could be the most insightful one yet!
