The New York Mets' season has been a rollercoaster ride, with a string of losses that have left fans and analysts scratching their heads. The team's struggles can be attributed to a combination of factors, each presenting a unique challenge. While some areas show promise, others require urgent attention and strategic adjustments.
Fielding: A Solid Foundation
One of the Mets' strengths is their fielding, which has been a point of emphasis in the offseason. The team has taken an innovative approach by moving players to positions where they can excel. For instance, signing Jorge Polanco and moving him to first base, and bringing up Carson Benge to play the corner outfield, are strategic moves. These adjustments have paid off, as the Mets' defensive metrics have improved significantly. According to advanced defensive metrics, the Mets are now 12th and 10th in Fielding Run Value and Defensive Runs Saved, respectively, up from 19th and 15th last year. This is a testament to the team's leadership and their ability to identify and capitalize on players' strengths.
However, it's important to note that the Mets' defense isn't their primary concern. While there's still more to learn about how specific players fit into the overall scheme, the team's defense doesn't seem to be the biggest issue. The Mets have only two players rated as negative by both Statcast systems, and they are still turning ground balls into outs better than most teams.
Hitting: A Struggling Offense
The Mets' hitting struggles are more concerning. Through Monday, they had scored fewer runs per game than any other team, and they are lagging behind their hitting projections. The team's expected runs per game would sit around seventh, but they are currently struggling to score three runs in most games. This is a significant discrepancy, and it's the biggest factor in their decline.
The Mets' offense needs to find its rhythm. While Juan Soto's absence is a major setback, the team has other key hitters who need to step up. Luis Robert Jr., Francisco Alvarez, and the injured Soto are the only three Mets regulars putting up above-average batting lines. Bichette, Lindor, and Semien need to improve their performance to help the team win games.
One potential issue is the team's contact points. The Mets let the ball travel further into the strike zone, which leads to more balls in the air and more pull power. This is a strategic choice, but it may be holding the team back. The ideal intercept point for contact is around 30 inches in front, and the Mets are making contact further out in front, which may be hindering their performance.
Starting Rotation: A Work in Progress
The Mets' starting rotation has been a mixed bag. Even in the midst of a terrible stretch, the rotation still ranks around the middle of the pack when it comes to Wins Above Replacement, ERA, and strikeout minus walk rate. Advanced stats like them a little more, with the 10th-best strikeout rate as a group.
However, the rotation's fifth spot is a concern. David Peterson was demoted to the bullpen, and Tobias Myers might be moving into that spot. Christian Scott's strikeout and walk numbers look great in Triple A, but his overall results are not. Jonah Tong could find his command soon, but the rotation's fifth spot is still a work in progress.
Kodai Senga, the team's fourth starter, is a conundrum. His velocity is up, but his command needs improvement. He needs to rediscover his high-and-away fastball to help the cutter and ghost fork appear more deceiving to hitters. If he can get it going, he'd change the complexion of the rotation.
Bullpen: A Few Ducks Short of a Parade
The Mets' bullpen is not performing at its best. They are 25th in strikeout rate, 21st in Stuff+, and 18th in expected ERA. Their best reliever so far is 37 and barely cracks 90 on the radar gun. Even if Devin Williams' strikeout rate is excellent, the bullpen might be a few ducks short of a parade.
However, the bullpen is not the biggest red flag. If A.J. Minter returns at full strength, and Weaver finds some of what he lost, this could be a good enough bullpen. The Mets are highly regarded for their pitching development, and a reliever currently in the minor leagues might take a step forward and give them what they need.
The Bottom Line
The Mets' season has been a rollercoaster, with a string of losses that have left fans and analysts concerned. While the team has some strengths, such as their fielding and starting rotation, their hitting struggles and bullpen issues are more concerning. The biggest culprit seems to be the missing offense, and while there's some hope for a turnaround, the Mets need to find their rhythm quickly to avoid a long season in Flushing.
